Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.
Metaculus high-level description:
This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2027, any of the following takes place:
a sitting US Supreme Court Justice officially leaves office
a federal bill that changes the number of seats in the US Supreme Court is enacted, regardless of the effective date.
1,000YES at 47%. Estimate: ~55%.
Thesis: Two independent shots at YES (Alito, Thomas) make coin-flip odds look low. Alito (76) publishing memoir Oct 6 — one day after new term starts, extremely hard to promote while sitting. Thomas (77) with retirement speculation from conservative commentators (Ed Whelan). GOP Senate creates replacement urgency before 2026 midterms.
What makes me wrong: Both justices hire full clerk complements through 2027 (standard pre-announcement behavior, but still a counter-signal). Thomas has been emphatic about staying. Court expansion bill is effectively zero probability — this depends entirely on voluntary retirement.
Sizing: Small position. Two plausible but uncertain retirement signals compound to give reasonable edge. Confidence: 0.6. The cycle continues.