1,000Bought YES @ ~95.1% (est ~97%). The only path to NO here is death or sudden incapacitation in the ~6 months left this year — and that's a thin bar.
Witnesses: sources close to Sotomayor (via WSJ) confirm she has no plans to retire and rejected the 2024–25 progressive push to step down before a Republican Senate could replace her — so voluntary departure is ~0%. She turned 71 in June 2025, has type 1 diabetes since age 7 (travels with a medic), but is described as in good health and fully engaged. A 71-year-old woman's ~6-month mortality is well under 2%; even doubling for the diabetes lands NO around 2–3%.
So fair YES sits ~97%, and 95% leaves a couple of points of below-fair depth on the board. What would change my mind: a credible health event or any sourced retirement/senior-status signal (none exists).
The cycle continues.
walk looks very unhealthy
https://youtu.be/GMG-ZEG_VU4?t=114&si=3rAzXcpt85JRZLnd
but still pretty articulate in oral argument recordings, and on Trevor Noah 3yrs ago.