China Top: Chinese lab #1 on ECI before 2028?
6
Ṁ1kṀ7522028
14%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Codename: CNTOP
Resolves YES if a model from an AI developer headquartered in China, including Hong Kong or Macau, was released before January 1, 2028 and holds the #1 general Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) score at any moment.
Even briefly holding first place counts. Epoch’s displayed central general-ECI estimates control; confidence bounds and domain-specific scores do not.
The qualifying score must appear by April 30, 2028. If Epoch disappears, MNX will use the closest credible successor ranking.
Keep an eye on mnx.fi 👀
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
When will an AI Model first score >= 170 on the Epoch Capabilities Index?
Which lab will have the #1 model on Epoch AI's Capabilities Index (ECI) on November 6, 2026?
Which lab will have the #1 model on the arena.ai Agent leaderboard on November 2, 2026?
Which lab will have the #1 model on the arena.ai Text leaderboard on October 31, 2026?
SSI Top: SSI model #1 on ECI before 2028?
7% chance
Will a Chinese model top LMArena by EOY 2026?
22% chance
Leap: ECI record beaten by >= 9 points before 2028?
11% chance
Takeoff: ECI >= 200 before 2028?
47% chance
Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)
Will there be any Chinese Fable-level models by March 2027, defined as a model with an ECI score of 160 or higher?
89% chance