Who will launch the first crewed Mars flyby mission, USA or China?
8
Ṁ100Ṁ1092035
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
42%
USA (SpaceX, NASA, or any US entity)
11%
China (CNSA or any Chinese entity)
47%
Neither by end of 2035
Resolution criteria
Resolves to whichever party first launches a crewed spacecraft on a trajectory passing within ~50,000 km of Mars.
"USA" includes any US-based company (SpaceX, etc.) or public agency (NASA). "China" includes CNSA or any Chinese entity.
A landing is NOT required — a flyby trajectory with crew aboard at the time of launch is sufficient.
Resolved by launch date. If a landing mission flies by Mars en route, it counts as a flyby for this purpose.
Resolves NEITHER if no qualifying crewed mission launches before 23:59 UTC Dec 31, 2035.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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