Will a crewed Mars flyby or Mars orbit mission be attempted before a crewed Mars landing mission?
5
100Ṁ1522100
44%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If it's a Mars landing mission and they orbit/do a flyby just because something fails and the plan changes mid-mission, it still counts as a landing mission.
Phobos/Deimos landing missions also count as landing missions.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will there be a crewed mission to Lunar orbit before 2026?
1% chance
Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2050?
71% chance
Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2040?
45% chance
Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2030?
6% chance
Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2035?
30% chance
Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2045?
62% chance
Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2055?
77% chance
Will there be a crewed mission to Lunar orbit before 2029?
88% chance
Will there be a crewed mission to Lunar orbit before 2028?
83% chance
Will there be a crewed mission to Lunar orbit before 2027?
75% chance