Which will be the first year that China successfully launches more orbital rockets than the USA? | Manifold

Which will be the first year that China successfully launches more orbital rockets than the USA?

5

Ṁ175Ṁ92

Dec 31

4%

2026

4%

2027

15%

2028

13%

2029

5%

2030

46%

Not before 2040

11%

Other

Resolves according to Gunter's Space Page

Note that the provided linked counts failed launches as well, I am more than open to using a better source. My plan atm is just to work out the discrepancy by hand if and when it looks close.

https://space.skyrocket.de/doc_chr/lau2025.htm

Update 2026-01-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve to the first year after 2025 in which China successfully launches more orbital rockets than the USA. (China had more launches during 2018-2021, so those years are excluded from consideration.)

Market context

Commercial spaceflight

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China did more total launches in the 2018 to 2021 period
Since then USA lead has been growing.
So presumably first year after 2025?

Any reasons to expect current trends to reverse?

@ChristopherRandles I didn't actually know that, but yes, first year after 2025.

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