Which 2028 US Senate elections will a Democrat win?
7
Ṁ850Ṁ2.2k2028
96%
California (Incumbent - (D) Alex Padilla)
92%
Maryland (Incumbent - (D) Chris Van Hollen)
92%
Illinois (Incumbent - (D) Tammy Duckworth)
90%
Washington (Incumbent - (D) Patty Murray)
90%
Connecticut (Incumbent - (D) Richard Blumenthal)
90%
Oregon (Incumbent - (D) Ron Wyden)
87%
New York (Incumbent - (D) Chuck Schumer)
87%
New Hampshire (Incumbent - (D) Maggie Hassan)
87%
Colorado (Incumbent - (D) Michael Bennet)
86%
Vermont (Incumbent - (D) Peter Welch)
74%
Hawaii (Incumbent - (D) Brian Schatz)
67%
Pennsylvania (Incumbent - (D) John Fetterman)
67%
Arizona (Incumbent - (D) Mark Kelly)
66%
Georgia (Incumbent - (D) Raphael Warnock)
64%
Wisconsin (Incumbent - (R) Ron Johnson)
62%
Nevada (Incumbent - (D) Catherine Cortez Masto)
61%
North Carolina (Incumbent - (R) Ted Budd)
44%
Ohio (Incumbent - TBD 2026 Special Election)
37%
South Carolina (Incumbent -(R) Tim Scott)
35%
Iowa (Incumbent - (R) Chuck Grassley)
Incumbents listed are a guide only and have no effect on the answer. Market answer resolves yes if ANY Democrat wins that seat
Resolves according to the winner of the 2028 us senate election in the state listed for that answer.
This is for the regular 2028 election, if a state has a special election as well as a regular, resolves based on the regular only.
Resolves yes if the Democratic candidate on the ballot wins, or an independent who caucuses or plans to caucus with the Democrat, wins.
This market can resolve early based on projections by associated press or another trusted outlet. If an independent wins and it is unclear how they will caucus, that answer will wait to be resolved.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
People are also trading
Related questions
Will a Republican win in the following US Senate 2026 elections?
Will a Democrat win these US House races in 2026?
Will Democrats win 53 seats or more in the 2026 Senate elections?
41% chance
Which 2026 Senate election will have the greatest Democratic Margin of Victory?
2026 US Senate Election: will the party of the winner of this state's senate seat go on to win senate control?
Will Democrats win the Senate in the 2028 Senate elections?
70% chance
What will be the tipping point Senate seat for Democrats in the 2026 elections?
Democratic Senate Seat Count (2028)
2028: Who will win the Presidency, House, and Senate?
How many Democratic Senators will win their primaries in 2028?