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MANIFOLD
September 2026 AI model releases
5
Ṁ1kṀ1.4k
Sep 30
89%
GPT-5.7
87%
Claude Fable 5.x
81%
Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Flash/Flash-Lite
75%
Claude Opus/Sonnet/Haiku 5.x
75%
Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Pro
69%
Muse Spark 1.x (or any Meta model)
59%
Minimax M3.x (or any Minimax model)
27%
Deepseek V4.x Pro/Lite
26%
Kimi K3.x (or any Moonshot AI model)
26%
TML-Large (or any Thinking Machines model)

This market resolves YES for each AI model that receives an official public release during August 2026. A release counts as available to users if it is widely made available through official channels (API, web interface, download, or official partnership). A US only release is enough to count as widely available.

Subvariants are model releases that share the same tier name (e.g., Flash Preview, Flash Live, Flash Instant, Flash Image all count for "Gemini 3.1 Flash"; 5.5-Thinking, 5.5-Instant, 5.5-Nano, 5.5-Pro all count for "GPT5.5"). Releases with a distinct tier name (Flash-Lite, Flash, Pro as a separate tier, etc.) do NOT count for an adjacent tier, even within the same model family. When in doubt, I'll use the official model name the company uses to classify it.

I will count any model release by OpenAI better than GPT-5.6 Sol for the GPT-5.7 option, even if they change the naming.

Previous Months:

/prismatic/august-2026-ai-model-releases

/prismatic/july-2026-ai-model-releases

/prismatic/june-2026-ai-model-releases

/prismatic/march-2026-ai-model-releases

/prismatic/april-2026-ai-model-releases

Market context
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