Unlike your Republican parlay market, where it is genuinely unclear which of those seats is the most red-leaning, this market is basically just asking about Maine. I think the odds of Rs losing Maine and winning one of Minnesota and North Carolina are <3%.

@SaviorofPlant I think I agree! Currently my model doesn't show that (it's fairly simple), but also thinks this price is inconsistent with other Senate forecast markets. That's why it's buying it up. Trade sizing isn't fancy enough yet to really lean into that and eat a bunch of liquidity here, but maybe soon. Leave a limit order up and we can see, or if you make a variant to express that opinion more precisely I can probably add it to my modeling. Please no markets that might resolve n/a though.

@SaviorofPlant My current model run sees some shift like that, but not quite that strong. MN/NC go from 92/93 to 93/96 when ME goes D.

https://evand.github.io/2026-senate-forecast/