On April 16th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be?

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Let x be the 7-day average ships passing on through the Strait of Hormuz on April 16th 2026. Using IMF PortWatch as the official source, each market above will resolve to YES if the inequality is true and will resolve to NO otherwise.

If the data are not available by end of day April 30th, I will resolve each market to NA.

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Shipping interruptions in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

Update 2026-04-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Only commercial ships tracked by IMF PortWatch will be counted. Military ships are excluded.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, x ≥ 2, followed by x ≥ 4 and x ≥ 6 are most likely. See the market for live updates (14 traders, as of Apr 16, 2026).

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