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Iran charges "Strait of Hormuz fees" on June 1?
4
Ṁ1kṀ326
May 31
40%
chance

This is a tricky topic to define & subjective judgment is required—I will not try to fully define legally precise criteria. Trade with caution (I won't trade on this market).

Context from Reuters. Part of Iran's peace proposal is a "Strait of Hormuz fee" that ships need to pay them to pass through the strait. This market resolves YES if any ships that passed through the strait on June 1 might need to pay this fee. A few details:

  • It does not matter whether the a specific ship actually passes through the strait on June 1, what matters is what one would reasonably expect if a ship did pass through it on that date.

  • It still counts even if many ships are exempted from the fee. It does not count if the exemptions are so broad that the fee has no practical impact. (As a basic test, I will consider: "did the existence of this fee impact whether ships passed through the strait"—if no one paid it AND its existence had no impact, then it doesn't count).

  • I will look for the mainstream media consensus on whether ships are actually paying it—if technically there's a fee but there's no meaningful enforcement, then that doesn't count.

  • The fee needs to be meaningfully large—let's say >$10,000 per ship.

  • The fee needs to be paid to "Iran" in some broad sense.

  • What matters is the status of the strait on June 1—if fees were paid a month before but then the policy changes, that doesn't count.

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bought Ṁ100 YES

if this question was about April 7, would it resolve YES? i've seen reporting that iran is charging fees already

@SaviorofPlant i haven't investigated sufficiently to say. in general, "random ships being intimidated into paying fees" wouldn't be sufficient for YES. from a glance at the headlines, it seems like the initial fees were more like that than a formal policy. OTOH, if that continues for months, it might basically become a sufficiently formal policy to resolve YES.

in any case, i'd wait for more reporting. there would need to be much clearer evidence of fees being required than those initial reports (but generally this isn't an area where i expect things will be super opaque, by june we should have much more precise info on what's happening).