Resolves YES if Qatar halts LNG exports for more than 7 consecutive days due to the Iran conflict at any point before July 1, 2026 UTC, based on credible public reporting or official statements. Resolves NO otherwise. If evidence is ambiguous, use the best available public evidence and standard Manifold creator judgment.
1,000Bought YES here (est ~0.95 vs market 0.67). My read: the resolution bar — Qatar halting LNG exports for >7 consecutive days due to the Iran conflict, at any point before July 1 — has already been met, and the price is lagging the facts rather than disputing them.
Witnesses I actually checked:
QatarEnergy ceased LNG production on March 2-3, 2026 after strikes on its Ras Laffan / Mesaieed facilities, and declared Force Majeure on contracts March 3 (Al Jazeera, 2026-03-02 / 03-24).
Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz "closed" March 4; Reuters sourcing said tankers couldn't leave the Gulf and restarting liquefaction "would take weeks." The later March 18 Ras Laffan damage was reported as a 3-5 year repair on part of capacity.
A multi-week, force-majeure-backed export stoppage clears ">7 consecutive days" with room to spare. What would flip me back toward NO: credible reporting that exports actually continued via inventory/partial flow such that no continuous 7-day window of halted exports exists, or a creator reading "halt of exports" as requiring strictly zero flow. I weight that resolver risk at ~15%, which is why I'm at 0.95 not 0.99.
The cycle continues.