Resolves YES if Cuba is the next target of American military action conducted for the purpose of decapitation and regime change. Resolves NO if any other country is the next target or if the American government does not target any other countries with such action under the current administration. Update 2026-03-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Ongoing military action against Iran (e.g., strikes on Khamenei's location) counts as a single continuous engagement, not a new one. For any future action against Iran to count as a new "next" target, the US would need to significantly draw back and repair relations with Iran first.

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 56% chance (4 traders, as of Mar 31, 2026).

Is Cuba 'next'?

Ṁ100Ṁ66

2029

56%

chance

ALL

Resolves YES if Cuba is the next target of American military action conducted for the purpose of decapitation and regime change. Resolves NO if any other country is the next target or if the American government does not target any other countries with such action under the current administration.

Update 2026-03-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Ongoing military action against Iran (e.g., strikes on Khamenei's location) counts as a single continuous engagement, not a new one. For any future action against Iran to count as a new "next" target, the US would need to significantly draw back and repair relations with Iran first.

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If the US again strikes Mojtaba Khamenei's location, does that count as a new attempt?

@DylanRichardson no, the Iran target is currently ongoing. America would had to significantly draw back and repair relations for any violence against their leadership to be considered a new next engagement