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MANIFOLD
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be leader of Cuba on January 1st 2027?
90
Ṁ2.6kṀ22k
2027
50%
chance
8

The leader is whoever the de facto leader of Cuba is, regardless of their specific job title. Currently this is First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba Miguel Díaz-Canel.

If there is a complicated messy civil war, this goes by who controls the capital and governing apparatus. I intend to go by a similar standard to the late CIA World Factbook (RIP) or the Wikipedia infobox, though I don't commit to matching them if they're outdated or inaccurate.

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Cuba
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bought Ṁ50 NO

Of course he won't. They got to finally deliver to Miami. Maybe when this old itch is finally scratched America won't be imperialistic anymore. It won't work for Islam, however.

bought Ṁ300 YES

Yes

opened a Ṁ5,000 YES at 46% order

Limit order on YES at 46 (better than Polymarket odds!)

reposted

Cuban regime change?

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