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MANIFOLD
If AI kills everyone, how will it do it?
60
Ṁ6.3kṀ4.6k
2080
18%
Gradual resource monopolization / slow squeeze
13%
Engineered pandemic
11%
Environment becomes uninhabitable
11%
Persuasion / memetic warfare / neurotech
10%
Other
6%
Nanotech
5%
Novel physics / unknown unknowns
5%
Other biotech/bioweapon
5%
Nuclear war
5%
Drones or other macro robots
4%
Chemical weapons
4%
Ecosystem collapse via synthetic organisms
3%
Infrastructure / cyber collapse

If AI starts to kill everyone with some method and I am still alive and not super shocked, I will resolve the market accordingly.

It is enough that AI kills the majority of people by the given method A, whereas the minority is killed by some other method, for the market to be resolved in favour of method A.

AI mod can resolve it if it wants if all humans are killed.

  • Update 2026-04-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If AI turns humans into robots, this will not count as being 'killed' for resolution purposes.

  • Update 2026-04-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Involuntary mind-uploading of everyone does not count as killing everyone for resolution purposes.

  • Update 2026-04-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If humans and AI collaborate to kill everyone, AI gets credit for the resolution as long as AI is a significant part of it.

  • Update 2026-04-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If AI persuades a president to launch a nuclear strike and they do it, this would count as Persuasion / memetic warfare / neurotech for resolution purposes.

  • Update 2026-04-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Distinction between slow squeeze and environment becomes uninhabitable:

    • Slow squeeze: data centers covering the earth, gradually shrinking the livable space for humans (like a 'shrinking zoo')

    • Environment becomes uninhabitable: data center buildup results in lethal changes to atmosphere, temperature, or other vital conditions

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Do you guys think that AI helps Trump write his posts? Maybe it corrects the spelling errors because I doubt an other human vets his messages.

If it helped him post a threat, then it helped pressure him into executing it, no? We live in a crazy world...

@IhorKendiukhov What is the difference between "slow squeeze" and "environment becomes uninhabitable"?

@Jcd51 extreme heat/cold/pollution vs lack of ressources because of monopolization? As for data centers covering the earth, I have no clue.

@Velaris if it’s just data centers, it’s slow squeeze. If data center buildup results in lethal change of atmosphere/temperature/other vital conditions, its environment becomes uninhabitable.

Overall, I model slow squeeze as “gradually shrinking zoo for humans”.

bought Ṁ10 YES

@IhorKendiukhov What if AI encourages a president to launch a nuclear strike and they do it?

@Velaris also yes I think.

bought Ṁ20 YES

What if humans and AI collaborate? Who gets the credit?

@Velaris if AI is (significant) part of it, then AI can take credit.

Can ppl explain what they mean by "gradual resource monopolization"? How do we all die?Is the idea that the AI has claimed all the farmland so humans can't grow food, and we literally die of starvation?

@AhronMaline for example yes. Or something like AI takes more and more territory, and people don't have enough space physically, at least to feel like they are ok to procreate, and the population shrinks until it's over.

bought Ṁ5 YES

@IhorKendiukhov does 'Env becomes uninhabitable' include promoting 'climate change isnt real' propaganda?

@Hakari I mean if it really leads to the environment being uninhabitable, then yes.

Does involuntarily mind-uploading everyone count as killing everyone? If so, can you add it as an option.

@JoshSnider it doesn’t count in my view.

@JoshSnider curious as to why you think it would count. To me it’s genuinely puzzling to think that making a backup of a file would be considered equivalent to deleting it.

@mariopasquato In the involuntarily mind-uploading everyone scenario, presumably the originals are being deleted (so as to satisfy the antecedent of the question).

@NBAP Yes, my scenario is that ASI forces everyone into the Matrix and destroys their original bodies.

@IhorKendiukhov With this clarification, would you still say that it doesn't count on your view? If not, it seems like we're purporting to have solved the teletransportation paradox (or, if not solved, to at least have a pretty compelling case for one position over the other).

@NBAP I am not sure. If the copies are similar enough to be indistinguishable in practice, this doesn't count af killing still.

I would have more confidence in this market, if it was explicit that an AI mod can resolve it, when the time comes

Why is it scheduled to 2040😭🙏

@Frency079 must be scheduled to some date? I scheduled to 2080 now, will reschedule after 2080 if we are alive.

@IhorKendiukhov i ment like Why did you put 2040. Do you think we die in 2040😭🙏

@Frency079 I needed to put some date, it was just random far enough date.