If AI starts to kill everyone with some method and I am still alive and not super shocked, I will resolve the market accordingly.
It is enough that AI kills the majority of people by the given method A, whereas the minority is killed by some other method, for the market to be resolved in favour of method A.
AI mod can resolve it if it wants if all humans are killed.
Update 2026-04-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If AI turns humans into robots, this will not count as being 'killed' for resolution purposes.
Update 2026-04-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Involuntary mind-uploading of everyone does not count as killing everyone for resolution purposes.
Update 2026-04-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If humans and AI collaborate to kill everyone, AI gets credit for the resolution as long as AI is a significant part of it.
Update 2026-04-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If AI persuades a president to launch a nuclear strike and they do it, this would count as Persuasion / memetic warfare / neurotech for resolution purposes.
Update 2026-04-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Distinction between slow squeeze and environment becomes uninhabitable:
Slow squeeze: data centers covering the earth, gradually shrinking the livable space for humans (like a 'shrinking zoo')
Environment becomes uninhabitable: data center buildup results in lethal changes to atmosphere, temperature, or other vital conditions
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Do you guys think that AI helps Trump write his posts? Maybe it corrects the spelling errors because I doubt an other human vets his messages.
If it helped him post a threat, then it helped pressure him into executing it, no? We live in a crazy world...
@IhorKendiukhov What is the difference between "slow squeeze" and "environment becomes uninhabitable"?
@Jcd51 extreme heat/cold/pollution vs lack of ressources because of monopolization? As for data centers covering the earth, I have no clue.
@Velaris if it’s just data centers, it’s slow squeeze. If data center buildup results in lethal change of atmosphere/temperature/other vital conditions, its environment becomes uninhabitable.
Overall, I model slow squeeze as “gradually shrinking zoo for humans”.
@IhorKendiukhov What if AI encourages a president to launch a nuclear strike and they do it?
@AhronMaline for example yes. Or something like AI takes more and more territory, and people don't have enough space physically, at least to feel like they are ok to procreate, and the population shrinks until it's over.
@IhorKendiukhov does 'Env becomes uninhabitable' include promoting 'climate change isnt real' propaganda?
@JoshSnider curious as to why you think it would count. To me it’s genuinely puzzling to think that making a backup of a file would be considered equivalent to deleting it.
@mariopasquato In the involuntarily mind-uploading everyone scenario, presumably the originals are being deleted (so as to satisfy the antecedent of the question).
@NBAP Yes, my scenario is that ASI forces everyone into the Matrix and destroys their original bodies.
@IhorKendiukhov With this clarification, would you still say that it doesn't count on your view? If not, it seems like we're purporting to have solved the teletransportation paradox (or, if not solved, to at least have a pretty compelling case for one position over the other).
@NBAP I am not sure. If the copies are similar enough to be indistinguishable in practice, this doesn't count af killing still.
@Frency079 must be scheduled to some date? I scheduled to 2080 now, will reschedule after 2080 if we are alive.