Resolves YES if, before January 1, 2030, an AI-caused incident kills 100 or more people — a single incident or tightly connected series in which credible reporting attributes the deaths primarily to an AI system's actions or failures (accident, or misuse where AI provided decisive capability). Otherwise NO.

The 'warning shot' base rate: one edge of the selection channel connecting AI danger to AI regulation.

Part of a set eliciting the joint distribution over frontier concentration, oversight policy, warning shots, and AI catastrophe. Conditional prices reflect correlated beliefs, not causal estimates — companion markets price the selection channels directly.