MANIFOLD
If AI kills everyone, how will it do it?
11
Ṁ6.3kṀ1.6k
2040
11%
Engineered pandemic
9%
Persuasion / memetic warfare / neurotech
9%
Other biotech/bioweapon
8%
Drones or other macro robots
8%
Gradual resource monopolization / slow squeeze
8%
Other
8%
Environment becomes uninhabitable
8%
Chemical weapons
8%
Ecosystem collapse via synthetic organisms
7%
Nanotech
6%
Novel physics / unknown unknowns
5%
Nuclear war
5%
Infrastructure/cyber collapse

If AI starts to kill everyone with some method and I am still alive and not super shocked, I will resolve the market accordingly.

It is enough that AI kills the majority of people by the given method A, whereas the minority is killed by some other method, for the market to be resolved in favour of method A.

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