Conditional on no Doom by 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?
5
Ṁ90Ṁ1022030
26%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
That is, in 2030, will Chinese chip companies offer commercial/enterprise GPUs for sale flops/$ performance within 20% of peak flops/$ of any commercial/enterprise GPU sold by non-Chinese companies?
Conditioning on no doom, of course.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?
35% chance
By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?
55% chance
how many B30A / Blackwell GPUs will China purchase by EOY 2026
320k
By 2030 will China have reached AI flops/$ parity with the US?
37% chance
NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?
19% chance
Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?
15% chance
China produces 3nm chips before 2027?
14% chance
Will China really surpass US GDP by the 2030s?
54% chance
Will CUDA remain a monopoly for GPU software through 2027?
54% chance
Will China overtake the US in frontier AI by EOY 2030?
32% chance