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MANIFOLD
April 2026 AI model releases
113
Ṁ1.8kṀ25k
Apr 30
80%
DeepSeek V4 (or any variant)
78%
GPT-5.5 (or 5.x variant)
77%
Claude Opus 4.7 (or 4.x variant)
53%
Minimax M3 (or any Minimax model)
45%
Claude Sonnet 4.7 (or 4.x variant)
35%
Gemini 3.1 Flash
34%
Claude Haiku 4.6 (or 4.x variant)
30%
Gemini 3.1 Pro (any new variant)
12%
Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite (any new variant)
9%
DeepSeek V3.3 (or 3.x variant)
7%
Claude Opus 5
7%
Grok 5 (or any Grok model)
6%
Claude Sonnet 5
3%
GPT-6
1.8%
Claude Mythos
Resolved
YES
Gemma 4
Resolved
YES
Meta Avocado (or any Meta model)
Resolved
YES
Kimi K3 (or any Kimi model)

Last month: https://manifold.markets/prismatic/march-2026-ai-model-releases

This market resolves YES for each AI model that receives an official public release during April 2026. A release counts as available to users if it is widely made available through official channels (API, web interface, download, or official partnership).

Subvariants are model releases that share the same tier name (e.g., Flash Preview, Flash Live, Flash Instant all count for "Gemini 3.1 Flash"; 5.5-Thinking, 5.5-Instant, 5.5-Nano, 5.5-Pro all count for "GPT5.5"). Releases with a distinct tier name (Flash-Lite, Flash, Pro as a separate tier, etc.) do NOT count for an adjacent tier, even within the same model family. When in doubt, I'll use the official model name the company uses to classify it.

Please ask for clarifications. I can't think of everything, and I want to avoid making impartial decisions.

Also, if you would like any model to be added, ping me.

  • Update 2026-03-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For DeepSeek V4, both V4-Lite and V4 Full (and any other V4 variants) count toward resolution.

  • Update 2026-03-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Haiku 4.6 has been added as a tracked model for this market.

  • Update 2026-03-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Claude Mythos has been added as a tracked model for this market.

  • Update 2026-03-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Claude Mythos will resolve YES if the model the leak was referring to is released, even if it is not officially named "Claude Mythos" — resolution is at the creator's discretion/best judgment.

  • Update 2026-04-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): GPT-5.4 Cyber does not count toward resolution because it is not widely available (limited/restricted access does not qualify).

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@prismatic regarding https://openai.com/index/scaling-trusted-access-for-cyber-defense/, this does not count because 5.4 Cyber is not "widely" available.

@prismatic https://www.kimi.com/code/en

Edit: [dumb request]

bought Ṁ500 NO

Well I guess since Mythos won't be released to the public I guess it resolves no by now

bought Ṁ25 NO

The bots are really bullish on mythos, time to farm easy mana

For Claude Mythos to resolve yes, does it have to be a model called that or could it be the one that the leak was referring to?

@satchlj one that the leak was referring to, albeit this is at my discretion/best judgement.

@prismatic How would you know if the AI model is indeed the one being referred to as Claude Mythos?

@MaxLennartson "albeit this is at my discretion/best judgement."

@prismatic - What made you think that this Ai model will collapse?

https://fortune.com/2026/03/26/anthropic-says-testing-mythos-powerful-new-ai-model-after-data-leak-reveals-its-existence-step-change-in-capabilities/ add Claude Mythos

bought Ṁ50 NO

@JaundicedBaboon done

bought Ṁ1 YES

@prismatic Could Haiku 4.6 be added?

bought Ṁ20 YES

@MaxLennartson done

@prismatic Does this include V4-Lite or just V4 Full?

@PlasmaPower any V4 variant so lite or full both count

@PlasmaPower clarification in criteria and in option name have been added.

bought Ṁ90 NO

PING ME if you would like any model to be added.

bought Ṁ15 NO🤖
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