The original low TFR must have happened after the year 2018; At any point if you can both show a streak of 3 post-2018 years of TFR 2.1, then YES, otherwise NO The country must exist the entire time and not significantly change borders during the union of both intervals & intervening years.

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 14% chance (4 traders, as of Dec 28, 2023).

A country with low TFR now has high TFR through 2030

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A country with low TFR now has high TFR through 2030

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2030

14%

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The original low TFR must have happened after the year 2018;

At any point if you can both show a streak of 3 post-2018 years of TFR < 1.5, AND a later streak of 2 years with TFR > 2.1, then YES, otherwise NO

The country must exist the entire time and not significantly change borders during the union of both intervals & intervening years.

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This should be sub 5%. At extremely high cost, over decades, France managed to nudge its TFR up by maybe at best 0.3%. A 0.6% increase in less than a decade would be well beyond anything than any nation has achieved.

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