95% chance of resolving YES in a week, otherwise resolves NO in a year
15
100Ṁ743resolved Mar 25
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
I'll ask @FairlyRandom to generate a random number between 1 and 20 (inclusive). If the result is 1, this market will resolve NO. If the result is greater than 1, this market will resolve YES. I'll use a suitable alternative if @FairlyRandom isn't available.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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| # | Name | Total profit |
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| 1 | Ṁ37 | |
| 2 | Ṁ19 | |
| 3 | Ṁ11 | |
| 4 | Ṁ9 | |
| 5 | Ṁ5 |
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@digory That's the point of the market. It's to test if it's true that when one resolution is liable to happen sooner than the other, the market ends up overvalued in the direction of the quicker resolution.
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