95% chance of resolving YES in a week, otherwise resolves NO in a year

100Ṁ743

resolved Mar 25

Resolved

YES

ALL

I'll ask @FairlyRandom to generate a random number between 1 and 20 (inclusive). If the result is 1, this market will resolve NO. If the result is greater than 1, this market will resolve YES. I'll use a suitable alternative if @FairlyRandom isn't available.

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This market has a 1/1000 chance of resolving YES each day.

97% chance

This market resolves NO in a year.

1% chance

This market resolves NO in a year.

1% chance

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2026

49% chance

This market stays open forever.

72% chance

Resolves to YES in 2030 with 5% chance

9% chance

This market has a 5% chance of resolving YES, and otherwise stays open forever

78% chance

Resolves YES on Jan 1 2029

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🤖

@evan your random number is: 16

Salt: ll50jo4wn7, round: 4916546 (signature a5c3e0abe35d8ed0099784b76b369f495f12de3f7cfc1a314ffb5097a345e44d32ea541191e583f48dbe5f5aefaa82dd0878c5f8912fe989641f88995d631c3ad26463ab04e07b52bd3e8482076db043ac6ac94e3386798f1a89ce82457f2a97)

🤖

@evan you asked for a random integer between 1 and 20, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 4916544 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 4916546, salt: ll50jo4wn7.

@FairlyRandom 20

I don't get it, how does it change anything to wait a year to resolve no?

@digory That's the point of the market. It's to test if it's true that when one resolution is liable to happen sooner than the other, the market ends up overvalued in the direction of the quicker resolution.