Question will be resolved according to this dashboard: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2021019-eng.htm, or successor dashboards/Statistics Canada data if the above dashboard no longer works. "Plug in" means battery-electric or plug in hybrid.
Question closes mid March 2025, which should be slightly but not too much before Statistics Canada data for Q4 2024 comes out.
2024-01-31: Clarification: I will resolve according to that dashboard's % figure for Q4 2024 sales of BEVs and PHEVs.
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Q4 2023 numbers are out.
I notice that each time I come back (which I do every few months) the numbers jiggle a little bit. E. G., when I last checked, the dashboard said Q3 numbers were 12.1%, but today they are saying 12.3%.
I will resolve based on what it says as soon as Q4 2024 numbers are out.
I'm just going to leave some mana on the table for people who want to bet in this market. Won't bet any further, will see how my original predictions do. Figures are coming in ahead of what I expected. Latest quarterly data:
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/daily-quotidien/231211/dq231211e-eng.pdf?st=VBQKpEzJ
In q3, registrations were 10.3٪ (EDIT: for some reason I got this wrong, 12.1%), and growth rates y/y were +170% for hybrids and +43% for BEVs. At market creation I would have guessed a +50% overall annual growth rate, which would have put us at ~12-13% by q2 2024, >15% by q4 2024.
I did bet today, but only because I realized I made a mistake in my initial bets based on my initial guesses at what would happen.