My family has a cottage that we go up to somewhat infrequently but much more frequently in the last two years. This market will resolve yes if these 3 face cords of wood we just bought are all burned before we get AGI.
Feel free to ask clarifying questions.
Update 2025-06-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified that the definition for AGI will be determined by the resolution of the following market: @/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708
This market either resolves when we burn all the wood (before AGI) or when we get AGI.
Update 2025-06-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed that the market only pertains to the initial 3 face cords of wood. If the wood supply is replenished, the new wood will be kept separate and will not affect this market's resolution.
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I would like to propose this market as our standard:
/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708
@PaulBenjaminPhotographer I made a typo in the question. It's 3 face cords so ~1 full cord. Good eye!
How many logs do you burn in a typical week?
Are we using the Manifold AGI market as our standard for this market? /ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708
Are these logs being used in any way that furthers the development of AGI? /s
@Quroe 1) it's tough to estimate but i'd say maybe 4-5 a week if i average over the whole year 2) yup 3) if you count some AI safety research by the fire as furthering development, then yes :)
@elongatedmuskrat it may be slightly less, maybe 3-4. i don't have good data for this unfortunately. i'm kind of just trying to eyeball it based off of memory. we also only burn in the winter months so that complicated things.
@elongatedmuskrat Just to clarify, if you replenish your wood supply, it will be kept sequestered from this stash, correct?