As of February 2026, the Trump administration has been actively pushing for a diplomatic resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war. Multiple envoys have been sent to both Moscow and Kyiv. However, no formal negotiation framework has been agreed upon yet, making the outcome genuinely uncertain over the next few weeks.
This market resolves YES if official, government level peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are publicly confirmed and take place before March 10, 2026. A simple phone call or informal contact does not count there must be a formal, structured negotiation session acknowledged by both parties or major international mediators .
This market resolves NO if no such talks occur before the deadline.
1,000Based on the requirement for "formal, structured negotiation sessions acknowledged by both parties," the market should resolve YES.
Multiple sessions (Abu Dhabi I, Abu Dhabi II, and Geneva) have occurred at the government level with official delegations before the March 10, 2026, deadline. Even if no new session begins between today and March 10, the criteria have already been satisfied by the Geneva talks that concluded on February 18. Please resolve the market to yes as soon as possible. Thank you.