Resolves YES if Ukraine and Russia sign or publicly announce a formal ceasefire agreement (not just a temporary pause) by June 30, 2026. Resolves NO otherwise.

Three rounds of US-Ukraine-Russia talks in UAE and Switzerland (Jan-Feb 2026) produced no breakthrough. Zelenskyy proposed an Orthodox Easter ceasefire; Russia rejected it. Kremlin demands Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas. Analysts assess a peaceful end to the conflict is unlikely in 2026.