Will at least half of new cars sold in 2038 in the US be fully autonomous? | Manifold

Will at least half of new cars sold in 2038 in the US be fully autonomous?

26

1kṀ1077

2039

48%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

One of the questions from https://jacyanthis.com/big-questions.

Resolves according to my judgement of whether the criteria have been met, taking into account clarifications from @JacyAnthis, who made those predictions. (The goal is that they'd feel comfortable betting to their credance in this market, so I want the resolution criteria to match their intention.)

Self-Driving Vehicles

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bought Ṁ30 YES

Fully automated but possible to drive manually, right?

@RemNi Could be, but they don't have to be.

What level of full autonomy? L5? I consider L5 in particular extremely unlikely. I can see L3 or maaaaybe L4 happening regionally, outside the snowbelt.

I'd say 85% L2, 45% L3, 20-25% L4, 5% L5. Waiting to bet until clarification.

@MrMayhem I assume @JacyAnthis means L5, unless they're secretly Elon Musk.

This is based on a Metaculus question, which specifies L4.

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