How many blog posts will Scott Alexander make to ACX in 2024? Question resolves to log(post count + 1)/log(300).
12
80
1k
2025
83%
chance

The latest post on ACX ends with the promise to resume blogging in 2042. This may be hyperbole, but posting rates are likely to go down significantly.

As stated in the title, this question resolves to log(post count + 1)/log(300). This is to get a nice distribution in break points that people might be interested in:

0 posts: 0%

1 post: 12%

2 posts: 19%

5 posts: 31%

12 posts: 45%

52 posts: 70%

214 posts: 94% (average on SSC before it shut down).

If ACX shuts down but a successor blog is made active, the successor blog counts too.

Posts that are later removed are counted if I'm aware of them by market close.

Any posts that shows up in the archive to people who aren't subscribed such as open threads and classifieds, count. (Thanks @oh ).

Posts that are hidden without special actions such as subscribing are not counted (Thanks @Mad ).

Posts made by people other than Scott are not counted.

If more than 300 posts are made, this resolves YES.

edit: percentages fixed, thanks @rb

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bought Ṁ50 YES

It’s been 23 posts in 1.5 months. At this rate, we can expect ~180+ posts this year, which is >91%.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

When I calculate log(post count + 1)/log(300) I get

0 posts: 0%

1 posts: 12%

2 posts: 19%

5 posts: 31%

12 posts: 45%

52 posts: 70%

214 posts: 94%

bought Ṁ10 of YES

Do Open Threads or Classifieds count?

@oh Good question! Updated the description, I'm going to go off the archive and say yes.

bought Ṁ55 of YES

@dph121 what about threads visible only to subscribers?

@Mad I'm going to say no, on the basis that subscribing is a restriction and further restricted posts might exist that people aren't aware of or that are hard to verify.

Sorry for not having made these judgments in advance.

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