https://manifold.markets/PeterHro%C5%A1%C5%A1o/will-ai-outcompete-best-humans-in-c-c91105439712 has the following original description:

"DeepMind has recently published a pre-print stating that their AlphaCode AI is as good as a median human competitor in competitive programming. See https://deepmind.com/blog/article/Competitive-programming-with-AlphaCode . Will DeepMind, or anyone else provide evidence in 2023 they can beat the best human competitors?"

The AlphaCode paper testing setup involves submitting to Codeforces (the main competitive programming platform), computing the score that the model would have if it participated in that contest.

DeepMind's evaluation overestimates the performance of AlphaCode because they copy example outputs from human competitors in testing (see page 50 of AlphaCode paper), but this is less likely to matter at "best human competitor" level.

Resolves YES if the original market resolves:

• YES, if a reputable research group publishes an evaluation of a model using the same testing protocol (Codeforces contest virtual submission on unseen contests) before 1 Jan 2024, and beating 99.9% competitors in Div1 or Div1+Div2 rounds on average over several contests;

• NO, if no one publishes a paper with these results;

• N/A, if a reputable research group claims a similar result but there is significant controversy regarding their evaluation setup.
  

Resolves NO if any of the following happen:

• market resolves N/A or YES before anything like the above happens;

• market resolves NO but it should resolve YES according to the above criteria.
  

Resolves N/A if:

• the AlphaCode evaluation setup stops being possible; for example, Codeforces goes offline for a long time in late 2023;

• most other cases.

  Dec 7, 3:02pm: Will "Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?" resolve correctly according to its original description? → Will "Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?" resolve consistently with "AlphaCode AI is as good as the median human competitor in competitive programming" in its descripion?

  Dec 7, 3:03pm: Will "Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?" resolve consistently with "AlphaCode AI is as good as the median human competitor in competitive programming" in its descripion? → Will "Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?" resolve consistently with "AlphaCode AI is as good as the median human competitor in competitive programming" in its description?