Will the product of the version numbers of all major AI language models released in 2024 be greater than 1000?
AITechnology
Basic
29
Ṁ4.2k
resolved Jul 24
Resolved
YES

At the end of 2024, I will take all major AI language models released in the year, and take the product of their version numbers. Resolves to YES if that product is greater than 1000.

"Major" = released to the public by one of OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Inflection, or Meta, with the best available performance of any model released by that company.

So far, we are at 472.5: Claude (3), Gemini (1.0) Ultra, Inflection (2.5), Gemini (1.5) Pro, LLaMa (3), GPT-(4)o, Claude (3.5) Sonnet

Multiple models with the same version number count as long as they are not released simultaneously. So Gemini 1.5 Pro and Gemini 1.5 Ultra would be distinct if they are released apart from each other, but if they are released to the public at the same time, then they would not count. They do have to be different models, however - the various versions of GPT-4 would not count, for example.

"Best performance" is based on some sort of arguable best performance, basically just meant to exclude small models. Gemini 1.5 Pro would probably count, but 1.5 Nano would not.

In 2023, the following models were released:

GPT-4

Claude 1.3

Claude 2

Claude 2.1

LLaMa 2

Inflection 2

So the product would have been 87.36.

I won't bet on this question (except for maybe the last bet before resolving, assuming the resolution is clear).

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LLaMa 3.1 resolves this to YES. In the very unlikely case that someone releases like "Gemini 0.1" I'll reresolve, but I want to give everyone's mana back for now.

bought Ṁ100 YES

With Llama 3.1 this is up to 1464.75, so this will resolve YES unless a model with a version number less than 1 is released.

Nearly there: Claude 3.5 gives us 472.5

New models: GPT-4o counts as 4, I think it is more than just another iteration of GPT-4. I think nothing from Google I/O however, as Gemini 1.5 Flash is not smarter than 1.5 Pro, and no 1.5 Ultra yet. So the product is now 135. Just a 7x multiple away, so probably two or three more models needed.

Gemini 1.5 Pro (I'm gonna count their open public preview thing) and LLaMa 3 have been released, so the product is now 33.75.

Note that it appears that there is another version of LLaMa 3 that has yet to be released. So if that gets released separately, it would be another x3 multiplier.

I'm quite confident (~90%) that all these happen this year: Gemini 1.5 Pro, Inflection 2.5, Claude 3, Llama 3, GPT-5 (or 4.5)

that's 150-168, or ~1/6 of 1000

possible additions:

Gemini Ultra 1.5

Gemini 2

Claude 3.1 (or something similar)

Claude 4

Llama 3 (non-simultaneous release)

Quite likely Gemini 2 happens, and fairly likely there's a 1.5 Ultra.

According to precedent Anthropic is relatively willing to do 0.1 increments. Fair chance but <50%(?) of Claude 4.

Very unlikely GPT-4.5 and GPT-5 both happen this year.

Fun market idea

If Apple releases a model would you include it?

@MaxGhenis No, I want to keep it to the companies listed. It's a little arbitrary, but I'd rather people not have to think about all the potential companies that could release models.

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