Will Scaling Laws for Neural Language Model continue to hold till the end of 2026?
9
55
Ṁ307Ṁ190
2027
85%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Chinchilla presented The Scaling Laws
I'll not hold more than 10 shares in this market, though may make small token bets once in a while.
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
49% chance
By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025?
33% chance
Will Scaling Laws for Neural Language Model continue to hold till the end of 2027?
65% chance
Will any language model trained without large number arithmetic be able to generalize to large number arithmetic by 2026?
69% chance
Will Transformer based architectures still be SOTA for language modelling by 2026?
66% chance
Will a Large Language Model be listed as an author on a peer-reviewed paper by the end of 2025?
48% chance
Will software-side AI scaling appear to be suddenly discontinuous before 2025?
23% chance
Will language models be able to solve simple graphical mazes by the end of 2025?
65% chance
Will a Large Language Model be deployed on a mission to land on a moon or planet by the end of 2030?
27% chance