Will OpenAI release next-generation models with varying capabilities and sizes?
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10
Ṁ3282026
77%
chance
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Resolves to YES if OpenAI releases next-generation foundation models of different capabilities & sizes(eg. release of Anthropic's Claude 3 haiku/sonnet/opus).
If OpenAI releases a next-generation model and a optimized version of it at the same time, and they are in the different capability class unlike GPT-4 and GPT-4 turbo, then this question will resolve to yes.
Resolves to No if OpenAI just releases one model(eg. release of GPT-4).
The models must be the same family. (GPT-4.5 turbo & GPT-5 -> NO)
This question is limited to release date only. If OpenAI releases smaller or larger version of the model after the initial release date, that doesn't count.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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