Will OpenAI release next-generation models with varying capabilities and sizes?
12
240Ṁ5052026
64%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves to YES if OpenAI releases next-generation foundation models of different capabilities & sizes(eg. release of Anthropic's Claude 3 haiku/sonnet/opus).
If OpenAI releases a next-generation model and a optimized version of it at the same time, and they are in the different capability class unlike GPT-4 and GPT-4 turbo, then this question will resolve to yes.
Resolves to No if OpenAI just releases one model(eg. release of GPT-4).
The models must be the same family. (GPT-4.5 turbo & GPT-5 -> NO)
This question is limited to release date only. If OpenAI releases smaller or larger version of the model after the initial release date, that doesn't count.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Related questions
Related questions
When will OpenAI release an open source model?
Next model open sourced by OpenAI?
Will OpenAI offer a model that updates its weights while running during 2025?
22% chance
Will OpenAI launch a model even more expensive than o1-pro in 2025?
64% chance
Will OpenAI release a model which generates images using reasoning / inference-time scaling before 2026?
50% chance
When will OpenAI release its first model with "X" in the name?
Will OpenAI add image generation capabilities to its o1/o3/... series models before 2026?
80% chance
Is the OpenAI model spec the upcoming definition for next major API release?
80% chance
When will OpenAI release a robotics model?
OpenAI to release model weights by EOY?
60% chance