When will Epoch's Frontier Math be solved? (>90%)
12
100Ṁ5712029
37%
2027
30%
Later/Never
18%
2026
12%
2028
3%
2025
Self-explanatory
Update 2025-06-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution Criteria:
The market will resolve to the first year that a >90% score is reported on the benchmark. Subsequent years will resolve to no.
Initialization:
Probabilities are set by Manifold and may not necessarily add up to 100%. In an efficient market, probabilities should sum to 100%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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