Self-explanatory
Update 2025-06-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution Criteria:
The market will resolve to the first year that a >90% score is reported on the benchmark. Subsequent years will resolve to no.
Initialization:
Probabilities are set by Manifold and may not necessarily add up to 100%. In an efficient market, probabilities should sum to 100%.
1,000@WilliamKiely Unless the idea is that all later years will resolve positively? Like if 90% is reached in 2025 then all answers will be resolved positively?
@WilliamKiely Intention is that the question will resolve to the first year that a >90% score is reported on the benchmark. So in the example you put, 2025 resolves yes, rest resolve no. On the initialization, that is just what Manifold sets it to. You are right that in an efficient market the probabilities should add up to 100%.