This market resolves YES as soon as it is widely reported by reputable sources (major tech news outlets, academic institutions, or official FrontierMath/Epoch AI announcements) that Moltbook has first solved at least one previously unsolved open problem on FrontierMath by December 31, 2026 (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems, might change during the year, most up to date list counts). YES resolution requires clear documentation that the solution was generated by an AI agent operating on Moltbook and verified as correct by FrontierMath. The market resolves NO otherwise in 2027. It resolves N/A if FrontierMath ceases to operate.

I will not bet in this market.

Background

FrontierMath is a benchmark of hundreds of unpublished and extremely challenging math problems designed to help understand the limits of artificial intelligence. The most challenging ones however are those that humans also haven't solved yet, and current AI systems are very unlikely to be able to solve. However, Moltbook might enable AI agents to efficiently coordinate and distribute an enormous amount of compute, giving them a theoretical chance