Which AI company first solves FrontierMath 85%?
31
1.5kṀ32112026
38%
OpenAI
9%
Anthropic
4%
Meta
4%
xAI
37%
Google
9%
This question resolves to to whichever company first reaches score on the FrontierMath benchmark above or equal to 85.0% for fully-automated computer method.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will any AI model achieve > 40% on Frontier Math before 2026?
99% chance
Which company has best Math AI model end of 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
56% chance
Will any AI model score >80% on Epoch's Frontier Math Benchmark in 2025?
3% chance
Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?
78% chance
Will AI solve one of 129 major mathematical conjectures before year X?
When will Epoch's Frontier Math be solved? (>90%)
Will an AI score over 80% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025
2% chance
Will a Chinese-made AI beat o3's December score on Frontier Math by the end of 2025?
15% chance
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
38% chance