Which AI company first solves FrontierMath 85%?
31
1.5kṀ3211Dec 31
38%
OpenAI
9%
Anthropic
4%
Meta
4%
xAI
37%
Google
9%
This question resolves to to whichever company first reaches score on the FrontierMath benchmark above or equal to 85.0% for fully-automated computer method.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Does AI Pareto-dominate technical but non-mathematician humans at math?
27% chance
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
62% chance
Will any AI model score >80% on Epoch's Frontier Math Benchmark in 2025?
1% chance
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
37% chance
By when will AI score >= 80% on FrontierMath
Will an AI achieve >80% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
50% chance
Which AI lab will have the highest Sudoku-Bench score by March 1, 2026?
Benchmark Gap #8: Once a single AI gets >= 80% on FrontierMath Tier 4, how long until an AI publishes a math paper?
17
Which AI lab will be the first to solve a millennium prize problem?
Which AI will be the first to space? OpenAI?