By 2027 there will be a robot capable of performing every task a residential electrician can do
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Plus
106
Ṁ20k
2027
19%
chance

Needs to perform comparatively to any trained residential electrician, and able to solve any residential electrical issue a human residential electrician can.

Does not need to be as fast, just able to solve the problems at least 75% as good as the average human electrician.

Update: Remote control robots do not count.

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Does this include navigating to the job site on their own, navigating around the job site on their own, and taking care of their own energy needs?

predicts NO

Would we need to see a robot doing actual electrician jobs for money (or like a home robot people buy to do electrical tasks)?

Or does it just have to demonstrate that it can do common tasks e.g. in a training environment?

predicts NO

@fleventy It would have to be real world yeah, not necessarily for money

predicts NO

Its a very very different thing to provide instructions to fix a problem and to actually do it (recently there was news of someone using GPT-4 to fix a plumbing problem and gpt -4 guided them through the process)

Wire by wire, screw by screw,
Electricians, your days are through.
Robots are coming, skilled and bright,
Electricity's no longer your fight.

How about cost? What if robot can do it but cost of using it is 20x or something

predicts NO

@Lavander cost isn't a criteria here

Wordcels shocked to discover that most synapses are in the cerebellum

AI writes better than anyone at the NYT a decade before it can do the average blue collar job 😉

Yeah the precision needed (not to mention the ability to solve badly/wrongly specified problems- person says problem is A when it is B) is too high at 20% for this to resolve yes by 2027(4years)

predicts YES

This includes installing a new ceiling fan, fixing my ground wire connection, and installing new outlets in my kitchen that are up to code?

predicts NO

@LarsDoucet yup, anything you would call a residential electrician for

How slow is too slow to count as "performing comparatively to any trained residential electrician"?

predicts NO

@Jotto999 "Does not need to be as fast, just able to solve the problems at least 75% as good as the average human electrician." so whatever works, I'd probably be skeptical on a robot that took 100 days to do a 2 hour job, but a robot that took two days is probably okay as long as it's having good results in houses.

What do electricians do?

I have a scenario where, yes, but it will be piloted remotely by one or many human electricians, but I guess we don't use the term "robot" that way any more now that we're starting to get actual fully autonomous robots? But there is a trend in industry of using the word that way, and I'm not sure that goes away.

predicts NO

@makoyass I attempted to clarify by writing able to solve the problems at least 75% as good as the average human electrician meaning the AI inside of the robot would be there but I can see how it's vague now. I'll update it.

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