By 2027 there will be a robot capable of performing every task a residential electrician can do
18%
chance

Needs to perform comparatively to any trained residential electrician, and able to solve any residential electrical issue a human residential electrician can.

Does not need to be as fast, just able to solve the problems at least 75% as good as the average human electrician.

Update: Remote control robots do not count.

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Lavander avatar
Lavanderbought Ṁ0 of YES

How about cost? What if robot can do it but cost of using it is 20x or something

dmayhem93 avatar
dmayhem93is predicting NO at 21%

@Lavander cost isn't a criteria here

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacastingbought Ṁ140 of NO

Wordcels shocked to discover that most synapses are in the cerebellum

AI writes better than anyone at the NYT a decade before it can do the average blue collar job 😉

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserherebought Ṁ100 of NO

Yeah the precision needed (not to mention the ability to solve badly/wrongly specified problems- person says problem is A when it is B) is too high at 20% for this to resolve yes by 2027(4years)

LarsDoucet avatar
Lars Doucetis predicting YES at 24%

This includes installing a new ceiling fan, fixing my ground wire connection, and installing new outlets in my kitchen that are up to code?

dmayhem93 avatar
dmayhem93is predicting NO at 24%

@LarsDoucet yup, anything you would call a residential electrician for

Jotto999 avatar
Jotto 999

How slow is too slow to count as "performing comparatively to any trained residential electrician"?

dmayhem93 avatar
dmayhem93is predicting NO at 24%

@Jotto999 "Does not need to be as fast, just able to solve the problems at least 75% as good as the average human electrician." so whatever works, I'd probably be skeptical on a robot that took 100 days to do a 2 hour job, but a robot that took two days is probably okay as long as it's having good results in houses.

ZZZZZZ avatar
ZZZ ZZZbought Ṁ10 of NO

What do electricians do?

makoyass avatar
mako yass

I have a scenario where, yes, but it will be piloted remotely by one or many human electricians, but I guess we don't use the term "robot" that way any more now that we're starting to get actual fully autonomous robots? But there is a trend in industry of using the word that way, and I'm not sure that goes away.

dmayhem93 avatar
dmayhem93is predicting NO at 23%

@makoyass I attempted to clarify by writing able to solve the problems at least 75% as good as the average human electrician meaning the AI inside of the robot would be there but I can see how it's vague now. I'll update it.