Resolution source is: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
I'll check the approval rating at 0900h ET on both days
Resolves N/A if 538 is discontinued or Trump is not president on resolution date
Update 2025-19-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Updated:
Starting Point: Use Donald Trump's FiveThirtyEight net approval rating exactly one month after inauguration at 0900h ET.
Resolution Date: Moved by one month from the original closure date to accommodate the updated starting point.
N/A Conditions: Resolves N/A if FiveThirtyEight is discontinued or Trump is not president on the resolution date.
Update 2025-19-01 (PST): • Source Selection: Use the "polls of adults" aggregate from FiveThirtyEight's polling data. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-02-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Starting Position Update:
Use a fixed net approval of +2.5 for Trump as his starting rating.
Resolution Criteria Update:
The market will resolve YES if Trump's net approval is at -7.5 or lower on Feb 20 2026, and NO if he's doing better than that.
N/A conditions remain as originally stated.
Source Update:
Use the FiveThirtyEight page at this link for resolution data, noting that the data now reflects a blended average.
1,000
@Siebe you can't just pull up stats from the 60s, 70s and 80s when we live in a more polarized hyperpartisan era
@dlin007 yes I can. You can just weaken the strength of the base rate based on your theory ;) If anything, wouldn't polarization make approval less sensitive to policy outcomes?
@Siebe not exactly - it just means that Trump's floor is like 38% of Republicans who will approve of him no matter what and his ceiling is like 45% because Democrats will never approve of him (like they would a Republican president in the 70s). if he slides with independents, he will definitely crater, which is extraordinarily likely.
@traders i have a class to run to and don't think this is gonna change, so for the purposes of this market, Trump's starting position is +2.5 net approval. Market will resolve YES if Trump is -7.5 net approval or worse on Feb 20 2026, NO if he's doing better than that, and N/A as discussed at market creation. 538 is now using some sort of blended average so there's no option to toggle just adults, so we'll use this page for resolution: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/
@traders since Trump's approval is still frozen from the end of his first term, i'll wait until exactly one month after he's in office and use his 538 net approval as the starting point. The resolution date will also move by a month. That captures the spirit of the market i think. I welcome any objections.
@dlin007 just realized there's multiple polling aggregates in that page, so to clarify, i'll use the "polls of adults" option