Will Donald Trump's net approval one year after his inauguration be at least 10 points worse than on his inauguration? | Manifold

Will Donald Trump's net approval one year after his inauguration be at least 10 points worse than on his inauguration?

Plus

47

Ṁ3540

2026

52%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolution source is: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

I'll check the approval rating at 0900h ET on both days

Resolves N/A if 538 is discontinued or Trump is not president on resolution date

Update 2025-19-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Updated:
- Starting Point: Use Donald Trump's FiveThirtyEight net approval rating exactly one month after inauguration at 0900h ET.
- Resolution Date: Moved by one month from the original closure date to accommodate the updated starting point.
- N/A Conditions: Resolves N/A if FiveThirtyEight is discontinued or Trump is not president on the resolution date.

Update 2025-19-01 (PST): • Source Selection: Use the "polls of adults" aggregate from FiveThirtyEight's polling data. (AI summary of creator comment)

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#🇺🇸 US Politics

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@traders since Trump's approval is still frozen from the end of his first term, i'll wait until exactly one month after he's in office and use his 538 net approval as the starting point. The resolution date will also move by a month. That captures the spirit of the market i think. I welcome any objections.

@dlin007 just realized there's multiple polling aggregates in that page, so to clarify, i'll use the "polls of adults" option

opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 50% order

Placed limit at 50%

i already feel bad about this line, which is kind of a lock. A more uncertain line would be ~15 points

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