Predict the specific timeframe for the UK Conservative Party will return to power in the event that they lose the upcoming general election. This market focuses on the exact years within which the Conservative Party will regain a majority in the House of Commons and form the government.
Resolution criteria
1. This market is contingent on the Conservative Party losing the upcoming general election, as is widely expected. It will resolve N/A otherwise.
2. The Conservative Party must successfully form the government. This includes:
• Either winning a majority of seats in a general election on their own.
• Forming a coalition government where the Conservative Party leads the government, and the Prime Minister is from the Conservative Party, even if they do not have an outright majority.
3. The resolution date will be based on the official announcement of the election results and the subsequent invitation by the monarch to form the government.
The market will resolve N/A if none of these criteria have been met by 31 Dec 2040, or for some other force majeure/intervening events (the UK ceases being a country etc)
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If Scotland and/or Northern Ireland leave the UK, does that count as the UK ceasing to be a country?
this is getting interesting again @traders now that Keir Starmer has not performed the miracles apparently expected of him by voters - https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly2r4g98gjo
The resolution date will be based on the official announcement of the election results and the subsequent invitation by the monarch to form the government.
Which one?
quite unlikely these two would fall on separate years but to avoid any ambiguity i'll use the latter
I'm thinking of a coalition government, assuming that the invitation by the monarch comes once a coalition deal is inked. It's not impossible that that will take a while at some point.
How likely do you think it is that they won't in the next, say, 20 years, conditional on humanity still being around?
Maybe the party will be disbanded in the mean time, and there is no such option here
P.s. i already tipped the second comment