I will compare the state of the art LLMs in June 2026 with current LLMs. I will resolve YES if there's not a marked improvement, no credible, verifiable improvement on the horizon and my judgement is that LLMs 'peaked' around end of 2024. I will resolve NO if something like GPT-5 comes out and it's a (subjectively) step improvement from GPT-4. Improvements around the edges and stuff like multimodality don't count. If Google releases something new that catches up with Claude 3.5/GPT-4 that doesn't count.

I use LLMs extensively daily and my friends have described me as having "such great judgment" but this market is still vibes-based at the end of the day so caveat emptor. I will answer any/all relevant clarifying questions in the comments and add stuff to the description if it helps clear things up. While most of the resolution will be mine, I will allow some external consensus to influence me

I will not trade in the market to avoid (appearance of) conflicts of interest