MANIFOLD
Who will win the 2027 french presidential election
55
Ṁ1.4kṀ9.3k
2027
27%
Dominique de Villepin
15%
Jordan Bardella
13%
Marine le Pen
12%
Edouard Philippe
8%
Other
7%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
5%
Gabriel Attal
3%
Manuel Bompard
2%
François Ruffin
2%
Jean Castex
1.2%
Bruno Le Maire
1%
Eric Ciotti

  • Update 2026-01-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If a French presidential election occurs in 2026 and there is no election in 2027, this market will resolve based on the 2026 election results.

Market context
Politics
Elections
France
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Who will represent the center in the future french presidential election in 2027
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be the best performing left wing candidate in presidential election 2027 ?
43% chance
Quebec election winner in 2026?
Will the next president of France be from a left-wing party
19% chance
If a Macron-backed candidate fails to be elected president in 2027, will a far-right candidate win?
65% chance
Will François Ruffin be candidate to the 2027 french presidential election?
57% chance
Will Darmanin be the candidate supported by Macron in the French presidential elections of 2027?
13% chance
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be candidate to the french presidential election in 2027
59% chance
Will Jordan Bardella be candidate to the 2027 french presidential election?
86% chance
Will Marine Le Pen be a candidate in the 2027 French presidential election?
10% chance
Sort by:

@dionisos how would this resolve if there is an election in 2026 and they don’t have one in 2027?

@NzJack0n Thanks for thinking about this edge case.
Then the 2026 election will count for this market.

Maybe add Dominique de Villepin?

https://www.mediapart.fr/journal/international/170125/l-echappee-dominique-de-villepin-faire-face-une-amerique-qui-se-moque-du-monde?utm_source=global&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=SharingApp&xtor=CS3-5

@ermitsou I think you can add it, if you want.
If not, I made a mistake.

@dionisos oops, yes indeed, I didn't notice I could, thanks

Similar question here :

https://manifold.markets/AlexandreHelicoidee/who-will-be-the-next-president-of-f-11b98432cfee?r=QWxleGFuZHJlSGVsaWNvaWRlZQ

Man, Not looking good for France. Can't Macron just become president for life?

People are also trading

Who will represent the center in the future french presidential election in 2027
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be the best performing left wing candidate in presidential election 2027 ?
43% chance
Quebec election winner in 2026?
Will the next president of France be from a left-wing party
19% chance
If a Macron-backed candidate fails to be elected president in 2027, will a far-right candidate win?
65% chance
Will François Ruffin be candidate to the 2027 french presidential election?
57% chance
Will Darmanin be the candidate supported by Macron in the French presidential elections of 2027?
13% chance
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be candidate to the french presidential election in 2027
59% chance
Will Jordan Bardella be candidate to the 2027 french presidential election?
86% chance
Will Marine Le Pen be a candidate in the 2027 French presidential election?
10% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy