Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if any candidate in the 2027 French presidential election (or a snap presidential election, if one is triggered earlier) wins an absolute majority of the votes cast (more than 50%) in the first round, thereby winning the presidency outright without the need for a runoff.

This market will resolve to NO if no candidate secures more than 50% of the cast votes in the first round, resulting in a second-round runoff between the top two candidates.

Sources of Truth:

• Official election data published by the French Ministry of the Interior (Ministère de l'Intérieur): https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/

• Official proclamations by the Constitutional Council (Conseil constitutionnel): https://www.conseil-constitutionnel.fr/

Edge Cases:

• Timeline: The first round of the election is scheduled for April 18, 2027. If a snap presidential election is called earlier due to a vacancy, this market will resolve based on that election. If the election is postponed beyond 2027, the market will remain open and resolve based on the eventual rescheduled election.

• Annulment: If the first-round results are formally annulled by the Constitutional Council, the market will resolve based on the official rerun of the first round.

Background

Under the constitution of the French Fifth Republic, the president is elected using a two-round system. A candidate can only win in the first round by obtaining an absolute majority (more than 50%) of all valid votes cast.

Since the introduction of direct universal suffrage for presidential elections in 1962, every single election has gone to a second round. No candidate has ever won the French presidency in the first round.

For the 2027 cycle, the first round is scheduled for April 18, 2027, and the second round for May 2, 2027. Incumbent President Emmanuel Macron is constitutionally barred from seeking a third consecutive term, leaving the field open to new contenders.

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