
I honestly find it very enlightening how few people saw this coming.
Everyone in France has acknowledged that this was a ticking time bomb for a long time. It's why she's been so aggressive in her dissent with Macron.
It's interesting that something can be so obvious and plainly written for all French people, but that it could be so opaque to everyone outside of France. The worst is hearing an American "France expert" weigh in. I'm lucky to be half-French, half-American, and having this perspective makes me realize how many bad assumptions people make about the rest of the world.
For instance, this seems to imply that China and its motivations are probably very poorly understood. There's so much stuff that just doesn't translate – history, memes, art, zeitgeist – that requires not just speaking the language, but having grown up immersed in the culture and politics of a nation.
It also suggests the human experience is far more complex and multi-faceted than we can imagine, in that our individual national experiences often completely fail to generalize to how other nations perceive the world.
https://manifold.markets/JackStennett/will-marine-le-pen-be-found-guilty I made a market for the upcoming trial (potential arbitrage opportunity).