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MANIFOLD
Who will make the second round of the 2027 French Presidental Election?
24
Ṁ1.6kṀ6.3k
2027
67%
Marine Le Pen
45%
Edouard Philippe
29%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
20%
Gabriel Attal
19%
Dominique de Villepin
11%
Jordan Bardella
7%
François Hollande
5%
François Ruffin
5%
Éric Zemmour
4%
Laurent Wauquiez
4%
Xavier Bertrand
4%
Bruno Retailleau
4%
Bernard Cazeneuve
4%
Raphaël Glucksmann
3%
David Lisnard
3%
Fabien Roussel

2027 French presidential election - Wikipedia

If no one receives a majority (50%+1) in the first round, the 2 candidates with the most votes advance to the second round. This market resolves to the top 2 candidates in the first round.

If someone gets a majority of the vote in the first round, this market will resolve yes to that candidate only.

Resolves based on the next French election, even if it is early, in 2026.

Market context
US Politics
Elections
Politics
Democratic Party
France
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FYI, think it is Bardella not Barbella. Largely immaterial

@JussiVilleHeiskanen fixed thanks

As I type add up just shy of 300 percent

@JussiVilleHeiskanen you can fix that if you like

@Jack1 it's not broken. It would be broken if it was below 200 IMO. Probably realistic from my perspective is getting it to 200 + 2x number of options

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