Who will make the second round of the 2027 French Presidental Election?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ1.7kṀ13k

2027

87%

Marine Le Pen

43%

Edouard Philippe

41%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

David Lisnard

Gabriel Attal

François Hollande

Raphaël Glucksmann

Jordan Bardella

Dominique de Villepin

Bernard Cazeneuve

Bruno Retailleau

François Ruffin

1.6%

Éric Zemmour

1.6%

Fabien Roussel

1.5%

Xavier Bertrand

1.5%

Laurent Wauquiez

1.4%

Christine de Lagarde

2027 French presidential election - Wikipedia

If no one receives a majority (50%+1) in the first round, the 2 candidates with the most votes advance to the second round. This market resolves to the top 2 candidates in the first round.

If someone gets a majority of the vote in the first round, this market will resolve yes to that candidate only.

Resolves based on the next French election, even if it is early, in 2026.

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High key an interesting market tbf

FYI, think it is Bardella not Barbella. Largely immaterial

@JussiVilleHeiskanen fixed thanks

As I type add up just shy of 300 percent

@JussiVilleHeiskanen you can fix that if you like

@Jack1 it's not broken. It would be broken if it was below 200 IMO. Probably realistic from my perspective is getting it to 200 + 2x number of options

@JussiVilleHeiskanen wtf is the maths you’re using to make that claim?

@JasonMendoza2008 two options resolve YES the two x is personal Harrison--Stetson market friction (pulled out of a hat)

@JasonMendoza2008 in general terms I may have erred in thinking the bias would be on betting to boost favorites, rather than betting down those one doesn't fancy.