playing a 6-round grand prix tournament this weekend. zero prep but feeling confident because i've been exercising consistently for like a month. my current estimates for the unresolved markets:

Gain 100+ rating points at any point in the year - 40%

Qualify for the 2026 Olympiad team - 5%

Average TPR of 2000+ for the year - <1%

Solve 2000+ puzzles - 2%

Have a TPR of 2100+ in a single tournament (at least 4 rounds) - 15%

Qualify for the national championship - 10%

small update: i will play 2 league games this weekend to reach 41 games for the year. i also plan to play a 6-rounder grand prix event in the september 20th weekend, and another in the october 11th weekend. these two will be my "last stand" so to speak in my attempt to qualify for the finals. if i don't score at least an average TPR of ~1970 in both events, i will end my chess tournament participation for the year, and resolve this market

@diadematus i am at ~100 solved puzzles so far, and trying to build some consistency

@diadematus AI has helpfully clarified that i had another cutoff for the september event but since the Oct event is my favorite tournament of the year, i added it to my last stand

I'm now at 39 games for the year (one league game was forfeited due to lineup reasons), with a live rating of 1907 (+54 since Jan)

Played another 6 rounds last weekend in a structurally hostile tournament for TPR (low average rating), predictably got another mid TPR and +2 rating. For the first time since January, I am no longer confident in my chances to make the finals. I'll give it my last, best shot in September, and call it a year if I don't get at least a 1980 TPR (which is now necessary for me to qualify)

i won 2 more games in the league so I'm +44 in the league this year, +28 in regular tournaments. Need a net gain of +28 in the next few tournaments to reach +100

tpr rankings after 7 tournaments. i'm ranked 10th (1898), but there's 3 other players with every strong "best 3" results which means as soon as they play a 4th event i will be bumped to around 15th

update: i squandered my good start and ended up with my worst performance rating of the year. my goal was to get a baseline 4th tpr so i'm not too disappointed, although the competition did very well and i need to get some serious training done and get a 2000+ tpr soon or my goal is effectively dead

yesterday turned out to be something of a high water mark cause i've gone on a losing streak since so all the bullish bets on me can chill a bit lol

Beat a 2034 rated player in the 2nd round of the tournament today in pretty nice positional style. Still have one more game today so I'll upload the game later today

@diadematus nice, congrats!

@diadematus actually managed to scan it directly into chessbase https://share.chessbase.com/SharedGames/share/?p=i4/a1geO7dXNRvI1113zOga5ALltSsK6XIND18+nJwOuIOkPIspNiV3mPe3xhq0w

signed up for another 8 round tournament this long weekend - not expecting good things but i will at least have a full set of 4 tournaments and i can start focusing on improving my worst scores...the provisional standings after 6 tournaments have me ranked 9th overall by TPR average so I'm still in with a shot

4.5/6 in easily my worst tournament of the year. i felt bad, and played bad and was lucky that it did not go worse

i ended up missing the first grand prix tournament, but still plan on playing this weekend

my next tournament is a 6-round 3 day tournament starting on Labor day - i'm still planning to play but i broke up with my girlfriend of 2 years and feeling pretty lousy :(

'nother update: our annual Easter Open tournament got cancelled so that's 8 less games I could play. Signed up for 2 GP tournaments in May (both 6 rounds) which will mean i have a full set of tournaments, and can focus on improving my lowest score. Still not doing any structured study unfortunately except sporadic blitz and looking at my games for like 30 mins a week

Beat a 1939-rated player in my first league game today - https://share.chessbase.com/SharedGames/share/?p=iOLoaRdg9bI5+8urX+ttkDatHh/xUj2p/61Q797swevn8fPpItKqsBrYEhkaUe56

Currently at 15 rated games, with 1 more league game tomorrow

@diadematus played 2 more games today, and beat an 1890 rated and 1715 rated opponent. That comes out to +28 rating from the league so far, so gaining 100 rating points in the year is looking slightly less unreachable

solid second tournament of the year, finished with 6/8 for a respectable 10th out of 147 players. I was not quite satisfied with my play, and the tpr was quite mediocre considering at least 6+ players scored 1950+ to high 2000 TPRs.

currently at 14 fide rated games this year, +28 FIDE rating points, and probably just inside the top 10 in the TPR average list

@diadematus I have played 4 1900+ players so far, drawn them thrice and lost once

i also did some analysis with Claude, and based on historical patterns, a ~1950 TPR average should be a 90% lock to make the finals, and a ~>1900 TPR average something like a 75% chance

Playing an 8-round FIDE-rated, GP-eligible tournament starting this Friday. Have done zero prep but still hopeful of a good result. a 6/8 would be very good, 6.5/8 would be extraordinary and guarantee me above a 1900 TPR.

After some back and forth i decided to sign up for the 8-rounder at end month. It's absolutely brutal, 8 rounds in 3 days so I was strongly against it but decided there was no real downside to playing (except potentially lost rating). i also finally set up a dedicated chess desk so I expect to start a chess routine quite soon.