Previous iterations:
https://manifold.markets/diadematus/will-i-place-in-the-top-24-of-my-na
https://manifold.markets/diadematus/will-i-play-at-least-50-fiderated-c
I'm rated ~1850 FIDE which is ~70 points below my peak and good enough for a top ~50 spot in my chess backwater country.
In 2024 I played ~25 fide rated games and an average of ~15 in the previous two years.
The national championship doubles up as the Olympiad selection tournament, and is determined by a closed invitational of the 12 players with the highest average TPRs in sanctioned events throughout the year.
I am taking this very seriously, and will only buy YES, but I have a track record of failure in my previous markets (🫠).
I will answer any questions, and provide frequent updates. I will resolve options as they happen/don't happen. All options refer to classical OTB play.
I will only resolve YES or NO. If I become incapacitated, or abandon any of these goals (won't happen) i will resolve NO. If FIDE or my local federation implodes, or another pandemic happens such that i can't realistically compete i will also resolve NO.
Update 2025-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Round robin of the final 12 based on the average of their 4 best TPRs until December.
Top 5 make the team.
Update 2025-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Updates:
Top 10 qualifiers will likely need a TPR average of approximately 2050.
Update 2025-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria:
All options refer to FIDE-rated classical games
Update 2025-07-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The creator has stated they will stop trying to qualify for the national championship finals if they do not achieve a TPR of at least 1980 in their September tournament.
Per the original market rules, abandoning a goal will result in a NO resolution for that option.
Update 2025-08-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The creator's final attempts to qualify will be two 6-round Grand Prix events on Sep 20 and Oct 11.
If the combined average TPR across these two events is below approximately 1970, the creator will end 2025 tournament participation and resolve the market per existing rules (unachieved goals resolve NO due to abandonment).
This supersedes the prior cutoff of requiring ≥1980 TPR in the September event alone.
Update 2025-11-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated they may not play in the final tournament of the year (scheduled for Friday). If they do not play, the market will be resolved on Friday. If they do play, the market will be resolved after the tournament concludes.
Update 2025-11-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator did not register for the final GP tournament of the year and has resolved most of the markets. This confirms the abandonment of remaining goals as indicated in previous updates, which per the original rules means unachieved goals will resolve NO.
Update 2025-11-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will keep the "gain 100 rating points" market option open until the end of the year, as they may still play additional tournaments despite not registering for the final GP tournament. This option will not be resolved early with the others.
1,000People are also trading
playing a 6-round grand prix tournament this weekend. zero prep but feeling confident because i've been exercising consistently for like a month. my current estimates for the unresolved markets:
Gain 100+ rating points at any point in the year - 40%
Qualify for the 2026 Olympiad team - 5%
Average TPR of 2000+ for the year - <1%
Solve 2000+ puzzles - 2%
Have a TPR of 2100+ in a single tournament (at least 4 rounds) - 15%
Qualify for the national championship - 10%
@Bayesian it's going...poorly. the last tournament of the year is on Friday and i essentially need like a 2400 TPR to qualify. I'm not even sure I will play. If i do play i will resolve the markets after, or on Friday if i don't
small update: i will play 2 league games this weekend to reach 41 games for the year. i also plan to play a 6-rounder grand prix event in the september 20th weekend, and another in the october 11th weekend. these two will be my "last stand" so to speak in my attempt to qualify for the finals. if i don't score at least an average TPR of ~1970 in both events, i will end my chess tournament participation for the year, and resolve this market
@diadematus AI has helpfully clarified that i had another cutoff for the september event but since the Oct event is my favorite tournament of the year, i added it to my last stand
Played another 6 rounds last weekend in a structurally hostile tournament for TPR (low average rating), predictably got another mid TPR and +2 rating. For the first time since January, I am no longer confident in my chances to make the finals. I'll give it my last, best shot in September, and call it a year if I don't get at least a 1980 TPR (which is now necessary for me to qualify)
i won 2 more games in the league so I'm +44 in the league this year, +28 in regular tournaments. Need a net gain of +28 in the next few tournaments to reach +100
tpr rankings after 7 tournaments. i'm ranked 10th (1898), but there's 3 other players with every strong "best 3" results which means as soon as they play a 4th event i will be bumped to around 15th
update: i squandered my good start and ended up with my worst performance rating of the year. my goal was to get a baseline 4th tpr so i'm not too disappointed, although the competition did very well and i need to get some serious training done and get a 2000+ tpr soon or my goal is effectively dead
@diadematus actually managed to scan it directly into chessbase https://share.chessbase.com/SharedGames/share/?p=i4/a1geO7dXNRvI1113zOga5ALltSsK6XIND18+nJwOuIOkPIspNiV3mPe3xhq0w
signed up for another 8 round tournament this long weekend - not expecting good things but i will at least have a full set of 4 tournaments and i can start focusing on improving my worst scores...the provisional standings after 6 tournaments have me ranked 9th overall by TPR average so I'm still in with a shot
'nother update: our annual Easter Open tournament got cancelled so that's 8 less games I could play. Signed up for 2 GP tournaments in May (both 6 rounds) which will mean i have a full set of tournaments, and can focus on improving my lowest score. Still not doing any structured study unfortunately except sporadic blitz and looking at my games for like 30 mins a week
Beat a 1939-rated player in my first league game today - https://share.chessbase.com/SharedGames/share/?p=iOLoaRdg9bI5+8urX+ttkDatHh/xUj2p/61Q797swevn8fPpItKqsBrYEhkaUe56
Currently at 15 rated games, with 1 more league game tomorrow
@diadematus played 2 more games today, and beat an 1890 rated and 1715 rated opponent. That comes out to +28 rating from the league so far, so gaining 100 rating points in the year is looking slightly less unreachable
solid second tournament of the year, finished with 6/8 for a respectable 10th out of 147 players. I was not quite satisfied with my play, and the tpr was quite mediocre considering at least 6+ players scored 1950+ to high 2000 TPRs.
currently at 14 fide rated games this year, +28 FIDE rating points, and probably just inside the top 10 in the TPR average list