Previous iterations:
https://manifold.markets/diadematus/will-i-place-in-the-top-24-of-my-na
https://manifold.markets/diadematus/will-i-play-at-least-50-fiderated-c
I'm rated ~1850 FIDE which is ~70 points below my peak and good enough for a top ~50 spot in my chess backwater country.
In 2024 I played ~25 fide rated games and an average of ~15 in the previous two years.
The national championship doubles up as the Olympiad selection tournament, and is determined by a closed invitational of the 12 players with the highest average TPRs in sanctioned events throughout the year.
I am taking this very seriously, and will only buy YES, but I have a track record of failure in my previous markets (🫠).
I will answer any questions, and provide frequent updates. I will resolve options as they happen/don't happen. All options refer to classical OTB play.
I will only resolve YES or NO. If I become incapacitated, or abandon any of these goals (won't happen) i will resolve NO. If FIDE or my local federation implodes, or another pandemic happens such that i can't realistically compete i will also resolve NO.
Update 2025-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Round robin of the final 12 based on the average of their 4 best TPRs until December.
Top 5 make the team.
Update 2025-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Updates:
Top 10 qualifiers will likely need a TPR average of approximately 2050.
Update 2025-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria:
All options refer to FIDE-rated classical games
1,000
3.00@diadematus i appreciate the optimism here but the reason this was an option at all was because given how little i've played in the past, i realistically can't expect to play a 2000+ rated player all that frequently. i didn't all of last year, and the last time i actually beat one was 2018
Questions from a patzer, approximate answers are of course more than welcome:
(1) How old are you?
(2) What was your TPR last year?
(3) What was the rating of the lowest-rated player in your national championship invitational last time it was held?
(4) Where do you source most of your puzzles?
(5) Are you making any major changes to your training from the last couple of years? Such as, big changes to your opening repertoire, much more or less time intended to study, or a big change in how you spend your time between puzzles, openings, game analysis etc.?
@JakeLowery
1) early 30s
2) last year was pretty bad. i played 3 tournaments and the national league games for a total of 21-ish FIDE rated games. Given I lost ~28 rating points, it's probably around ~1800.
3) this is a new format - previously it was a phased system which was like open qualifier tournament, top 24, top 10 but that meant people could slack all year and show up to the national championship and have a realistic shot. this new format is meant to encourage continuous activity. if i was to predict, the top 10 qualifiers will likely need a TPR average of say 2050
4) i have an insane number of physical puzzle books, so i just oscillate between them based on vibes, but i want to pick one and stick to it. candidates are the Woodpecker book and Manual of Chess Combinations.
5) Not really? I kinda know what needs to be done, but just getting it done at all would be a big improvement. I'm quite confident even just analyzing my games and practicing tactics would get me halfway there. it's not that i've been trying and failing, it's that i'm barely trying in the first place. edit: wait, there is a conscious change in tournament strategy. I'm very conservative and risk averse but given that TPR rewards maximalist performances, I'm considering adopting a sharper repertoire and playing for a win in every single game
happy to answer more questions/clarify etc
@Weezing no, actual puzzles from a physical book (e.g Woodpecker method), with written down solutions
@Weezing yes, round robin of the final 12 based on the average of their 4 best TPRs until December. top 5 make the team
