Will I play at least 50 FIDE-rated classical games this year?
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Dec 31
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One of my biggest chess improvement goals this year is to simply play a lot more OTB classical tournament games.

My previous counts are:

2023 - 16 games

2022 - 8 games

2021 - 8 games

2020 - 0 games

2019 - 9 games

I haven't played a lot previously, mostly due to personal or career distractions but I believe this year that will change.

As testament to my motivation, I have already signed up for a new chess club playing in my national league which should be good for at least 9-12 games. The remaining 40 games can be covered by around playing around 6-8 6-round tournament games. Ambitious, but achievable imho.

What could go wrong is a sudden change in my personal life or career that would necessitate I step back from chess (90%) or a loss in motivation (10%)

I will only be betting on myself (YES) on this market and will resolve this as soon I either complete the 50 games, or it becomes clear to me that I won't.

I should also mention that my Manifold failure rate when making personal chess goal questions is 100% but I'm determined to not give my doubters the satisfaction of being right again.

If this gets some traction I'll post a spreadsheet tracking my OTB participation in the comments

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national open has been cancelled :( - i'm gonna have to find 8 rated games somewhere in the latter half of the year

I skipped my first planned 4-round tournament of the year because I preferred to go on a hike instead but i don't think that changes my calculus too much: 90+% probability of playing my national open (8 games), league games (~9 games) and national championship (9 games) leaving me needing to play around 24 games in other tournaments

How many games have you played so far?

@jBosc zero, but i plan to play my first 4-round tournament in 10 days

bought Ṁ75 NO from 56% to 41%
bought Ṁ75 NO

@diadematus hope I'm wrong though!

@jBosc your feeble NO bets mean nothing to me ;)

bought Ṁ3 YES from 55% to 56%