I am currently ranked in the top 25 in my country with an Elo rating of between 1800-1900 (figures approximate for anonymity). I plan to play in my country's national chess championship from Dec 26-30. The tournament doubles up as the first phase of the 2024 Chess Olympiad qualifier, with the top 24 players advancing to a subsequent qualifying event, and I am highly motivated to join this group. This market seeks to predict whether I will do so.
Historical context:
Despite maintaining a high national rank and being motivated to qualify for the 2nd phase previously, i'm something of a serial choker unfortunately. Here are some results from previous national championships.
2022 - seeded 13th, dropped out after round 8 while ranked 72nd
2021 - seeded 15th, dropped out after 2 rounds while ranked 34th
2019 - seeded 16th, dropped out after 6 rounds, while ranked 38th
2018 - seeded 14th, dropped out after 8 rounds, while ranked 62nd
This time is different. I am more motivated than usual, have a calmer personal life and although I haven't started training yet, I plan on doing so soon ;). That will include playing in 2 tournaments to get some practical OTB experience. I am also more focused on physical preparation by running and strength training a bit.
Resolves YES if:
The market will resolve positively if I am listed among the top 24 players in the final rankings of the National Chess Championship as published on chess-results.com and verified by me.
Resolves NO if:
The market will resolve negatively if I am not listed in the top 24 on chess-results.com at the end of tournament, again verified by me.
The market will be void if i don't participate in the championship for at least one round for whatever reason (I intend to play barring some personal calamity), or if the championship is canceled, postponed beyond the expected end date, or otherwise not completed.
The championship is a 9 rounds Swiss system event and is scheduled for Dec 26th-30th.
The results can be followed on chess-results. I will post a link here before the tournament starts if this market generates some interest
Any changes in the event's status or my participation will be updated as necessary.
I might post casual weekly updates about my training and preparatory tournaments if this generates some interest
1,000
1.00Lots of tough games, but unfortunately I didn't make it again this time. Not a classic choke by me because I played all nine rounds for the first time and had a chance in the winner-take-all last round that I lost. Oh, well. Quite satisfied with performance, or at least less disappointed than I thought I would be. Enough that I'm already looking forward to working on my chess and playing again next year :). Thanks for the support everyone esp @nicwest06d6 😃
@nicwest06d6 sure, I will upload them on a lichess study as soon as soon as I have some time. Curious to see just what the engines think
T-1 days to go. Tournament starting list is out and barring any last minute changes, I'll be seeded 13th again. Not a great omen haha. I also just checked and the 13th seed has finished inside the top 24 2 out of the last 6 times. Oh well. Btw, one of you sussed out my real world id so I guess i don't mind sharing the actual tournament link - https://chess-results.com/tnr868042.aspx?lan=1. I probably won't be checking manifold until the tournament is done. Merry Christmas!
came across this yt vide about mental preparation in tennis that is very useful and applicable for chess as well: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TUyF142caS8
10 days to the tournament - my chess preparation has been a little subpar but my physical training is coming along nicely - I''ve been running consistently for 2 weeks now and keeping a good sleep schedule. I'm also going through my games and noting down my failure patterns and things I want to do differently this time. My theory is if I merely play at a normal level without doing anything spectacular I should be good for a top ~20 finish. I'm suddenly bullish again :)
Update 1: With exactly 4 weeks to go, I played in my first preparatory tournament over the weekend and placed 6th with 4.5/6...losing to a 1456(!), drawing a 1879 in and winning 4 games against lower rated opposition. Tournament was 3 rounds per day at 90 mins so it was particularly gruelling but I got a feel for my physical stamina and got some weaknesses to work on...