Are @Austin and @RachelWeinberg engaged?
32
130
630
resolved Apr 4
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if I receive credible information that @Austin and @RachelWeinberg were engaged to be married as of March 14, 2023. Resolves NO if one of them denies this or I don't hear any convincing evidence by the end of the year.

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Amnonian avatar
Amnonianbought Ṁ200 of YES
Conflux avatar
Confluxsold Ṁ9 of NO
Conflux avatar
Confluxbought Ṁ2,000 of YES

@derikk Does Austin’s comment count as credible enough

Conflux avatar
Confluxsold Ṁ456 of YES

@Conflux Actually wait, this doesn’t prove they were on March 14

derikk avatar
Derik Kpredicted YES

@Conflux Yeah @Austin want to confirm whether the engagement took place before or after pi day?

Austin avatar
Austin

@derikk pretty sure we got engaged Mar 9 or 10

derikk avatar
Derik Kpredicted YES

@Austin To be fair you’d dumped equally large amounts on YES before this ;)

Resolving now!

Conflux avatar
Confluxpredicted NO

@Austin you don't remember the exact date, smh my head

ian avatar
Ian Philipsbought Ṁ25 of YES

@eulerphi was that a mistake?

derikk avatar
Derik Kpredicted YES

It seems like the Manifold staff is quite confident this is the case, but we’ll have to wait for an official announcement or statement to resolve.

derikk avatar
Derik Kpredicted YES

A wedding invitation would count ;) @RachelWeinberg @Austin

Conflux avatar
Confluxbought Ṁ8 of NO

Clarifying q. Suppose they were not engaged when this market was made, but do get engaged today. How does it resolve?

derikk avatar
Derik Kpredicted YES
jack avatar
Jack

@derikk wait that seems opposite of what the market says.

jack avatar
Jack

@jack oh, nvm, the date the comment was posted was the 14th. Carry on

Conflux avatar
Confluxbought Ṁ25 of NO

I do think it’s likely they’re engaged, but they could also be planning a proposal, considering it, etc in ways that aren’t “engaged”

Conflux avatar
Confluxbought Ṁ10 of NO

@Conflux except @AndrewG is super confident?

derikk avatar
Derik Kbought Ṁ80 of YES

he's just hedging

AndrewG avatar
Andrew Gbought Ṁ40 of YES

@Conflux I'm hedging against my 30k no shares on them getting married...

Conflux avatar
Confluxbought Ṁ25 of NO

@AndrewG and perhaps I should too, but oh the allure of positive expected value

derikk avatar
Derik Kpredicted YES

orrrr maybe this is just top-tier market manipulation ;)