resolved Apr 4

Resolves YES if I receive credible information that @Austin and @RachelWeinberg were engaged to be married as of March 14, 2023. Resolves NO if one of them denies this or I don't hear any convincing evidence by the end of the year.

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bought Ṁ200 of YES
sold Ṁ9 of NO
bought Ṁ2,000 of YES

@derikk Does Austin’s comment count as credible enough

sold Ṁ456 of YES

@Conflux Actually wait, this doesn’t prove they were on March 14

predicted YES

@Conflux Yeah @Austin want to confirm whether the engagement took place before or after pi day?

@derikk pretty sure we got engaged Mar 9 or 10

predicted YES

@Austin To be fair you’d dumped equally large amounts on YES before this ;)

Resolving now!

predicted NO

@Austin you don't remember the exact date, smh my head

bought Ṁ25 of YES

@eulerphi was that a mistake?

predicted YES

It seems like the Manifold staff is quite confident this is the case, but we’ll have to wait for an official announcement or statement to resolve.

predicted YES

A wedding invitation would count ;) @RachelWeinberg @Austin

bought Ṁ8 of NO

Clarifying q. Suppose they were not engaged when this market was made, but do get engaged today. How does it resolve?

predicted YES

@derikk wait that seems opposite of what the market says.

@jack oh, nvm, the date the comment was posted was the 14th. Carry on

bought Ṁ25 of NO

I do think it’s likely they’re engaged, but they could also be planning a proposal, considering it, etc in ways that aren’t “engaged”

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@Conflux except @AndrewG is super confident?

bought Ṁ80 of YES

he's just hedging

bought Ṁ40 of YES

@Conflux I'm hedging against my 30k no shares on them getting married...

bought Ṁ25 of NO

@AndrewG and perhaps I should too, but oh the allure of positive expected value

predicted YES

orrrr maybe this is just top-tier market manipulation ;)