Are @Austin and @RachelWeinberg engaged?

2024

97%

chance

ALL

Resolves YES if I receive credible information that @Austin and @RachelWeinberg were engaged to be married as of March 14, 2023. Resolves NO if one of them denies this or I don't hear any convincing evidence by the end of the year.

Sex and love

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Amnonianbought Ṁ200 of YES

Confluxsold Ṁ9 of NO

Confluxbought Ṁ2,000 of YES

@derikk Does Austin’s comment count as credible enough

Confluxsold Ṁ456 of YES

@Conflux Actually wait, this doesn’t prove they were on March 14

Derik Kis predicting YES at 98%

@Conflux Yeah @Austin want to confirm whether the engagement took place before or after pi day?

Ian Philipsbought Ṁ25 of YES

@eulerphi was that a mistake?

Derik Kis predicting YES at 97%

It seems like the Manifold staff is quite confident this is the case, but we’ll have to wait for an official announcement or statement to resolve.

Derik Kis predicting YES at 97%

A wedding invitation would count ;) @RachelWeinberg @Austin

Confluxbought Ṁ8 of NO

Clarifying q. Suppose they were not engaged when this market was made, but do get engaged today. How does it resolve?

Derik Kis predicting YES at 82%

@Conflux Yes

Jack

@derikk wait that seems opposite of what the market says.

Jack

@jack oh, nvm, the date the comment was posted was the 14th. Carry on

Confluxbought Ṁ25 of NO

I do think it’s likely they’re engaged, but they could also be planning a proposal, considering it, etc in ways that aren’t “engaged”

Confluxbought Ṁ10 of NO

@Conflux except @AndrewG is super confident?

Derik Kbought Ṁ80 of YES

he's just hedging

Andrew Gbought Ṁ40 of YES

@Conflux I'm hedging against my 30k no shares on them getting married...

Confluxbought Ṁ25 of NO

@AndrewG and perhaps I should too, but oh the allure of positive expected value

Derik Kis predicting YES at 82%

orrrr maybe this is just top-tier market manipulation ;)

Conflux sold Ṁ7 NO from 96% to 97%

Conflux bought Ṁ20 NO from 97% to 96%

Eugger bought Ṁ1 NO from 98% to 97%

Eugger bought Ṁ1 NO at 98%

Amnonian bought Ṁ200 YES from 97% to 98%

Amnonian bought Ṁ200 YES at 97%

Conflux bought Ṁ20 NO from 98.1% to 97%

fredrick slick bought Ṁ100 YES from 98% to 98.1%

fredrick slick sold Ṁ15 NO from 97% to 98%

Ian Philips sold Ṁ2,130 YES from 98.9% to 97%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 YES at 98.9%

Ian Philips bought Ṁ2,000 YES from 97% to 98.9%

Lily bought Ṁ10 NO from 98% to 97%

Lily sold Ṁ24 NO from 96% to 98%

Conflux bought Ṁ40 NO from 98.5% to 96%

Conflux sold Ṁ456 YES from 98.7% to 98.5%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 YES at 98.7%

Conflux bought Ṁ2,000 YES from 96% to 98.7%

Conflux sold Ṁ9 NO from 95% to 96%

Lily bought Ṁ30 NO from 97% to 95%

Conflux created limit order for Ṁ20 YES at 92%

Conflux filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ20 YES at 96%

Conflux created limit order for Ṁ500 YES at 96% (cancelled)

Conflux bought Ṁ10 NO from 98% to 97%

Sinclair Chen bought Ṁ1,000 YES from 96% to 98%

Thomas Smyth bought Ṁ100 YES from 95% to 96%

Barak bought Ṁ100 YES from 94% to 95%

Alice bought Ṁ100 YES from 93% to 94%

Eugger bought Ṁ1 NO at 93%

Eugger sold Ṁ4 NO at 93%

Eugger bought Ṁ3 NO at 93%

Conflux sold Ṁ16 NO from 90% to 93%

Eric bought Ṁ100 YES from 86% to 90%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ50/Ṁ54 YES at 86% (cancelled)

androidyl bought Ṁ20 NO from 89% to 83%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 YES at 89%

androidyl bought Ṁ30 NO from 93% to 85%

androidyl bought Ṁ20 NO from 96% to 93%

Eugger bought Ṁ1 NO at 96%

Eugger sold Ṁ1 NO at 96%

Eugger sold Ṁ5 NO from 95% to 96%

alleycat bought Ṁ6 NO from 96% to 95%

alleycat sold Ṁ1 NO at 96%

Conflux bought Ṁ10 NO from 97% to 96%

Alice bought Ṁ100 YES from 96% to 97%

Alice bought Ṁ500 YES from 92% to 96%

Derik K created limit order for Ṁ50 YES at 80%

Derik K created limit order for Ṁ100 YES at 60%

Derik K bought Ṁ100 YES from 90% to 92%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ38/Ṁ38 NO at 90%

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Conditional on at least dating 6 months before getting married, will Austin and Rachel still be married after 5 years?78%

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Conditional on at least dating 2 years before getting married, will Austin and Rachel still be married after 5 years?74%

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Conditional on at least dating 1 year before getting married, will Austin and Rachel still be married after 5 years?76%