Will my marriage with @RachelWeinberg last 5 years?

Question

Resolves YES if, on the 5 year anniversary of our wedding, we've been together more or less continuously.

Resolves NO if we end up not getting married for whatever reason, or if we separate for a significant amount of time (eg 3+ months) after getting married.

Some context for base rates:

We met in Aug 2022, officially started dating in Oct, moved in together Jan 2023, and got engaged in Mar. Planning for a wedding in July or Aug.

I'm 28 and have a master's; she's 20, on leave from college

We currently work together building manifund.org

My parents are still together; hers are divorced

We intend to have kids, plural

See also:

@/RachelWeinberg/will-my-relationship-with-austin-la

@/Austin/will-rachelweinberg-marry-me

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 95% chance (154 traders, as of Jan 23, 2026).