New sovereign nuclear state by EOY2027?
7
3kṀ1396
2027
25%
chance

As of writing, there are nine sovereign nuclear states: USA, Russia, UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel. Will there be a tenth by 31 Dec 2027, 23:59:59 UTC?

Resolves YES if any sovereign state other than the above nine possess nuclear weapons before the above date. Otherwise, resolves NO.

Nuclear weapons sharing agreements do not count. The state must have credible and independent capacity to launch nuclear strikes on other (e.g. neighboring) states to count.

Technology
World
Geopolitics
Nuclear Risk
Nuclear
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:
bought Ṁ300 NO

Just to be 100% crystal clear -- it looks like it's correct but just double checking:

If one of the listed 9 steps away from nuclear capabilities and a new ninth state shows up, this still resolves Yes?

@Eliza correct.

People are also trading

Which countries will detonate a nuclear weapon offensively in 2025?
Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?
62% chance
Will there be a new(ly) major war involving a nuclear power before the end of 2025?
20% chance
Will a nuclear disaster occur that scores a 7 on the International Nuclear Event Scale by EOY 2030?
13% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2027?
20% chance
Russia launches a nuclear weapon in 2025?
6% chance
Will a nuclear disaster occur that scores a 5, 6, or 7 on the International Nuclear Event Scale by EOY 2030?
44% chance
Will there be a New UN Member by (before) 2026
What will be the next country to come into possession of their own nuclear weapon?
Which countries will increase the size of their nuclear warhead stockpile in 2024?
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy