New sovereign nuclear state by EOY2027?
7
3kṀ1396
2027
25%
chance

As of writing, there are nine sovereign nuclear states: USA, Russia, UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel. Will there be a tenth by 31 Dec 2027, 23:59:59 UTC?

Resolves YES if any sovereign state other than the above nine possess nuclear weapons before the above date. Otherwise, resolves NO.

Nuclear weapons sharing agreements do not count. The state must have credible and independent capacity to launch nuclear strikes on other (e.g. neighboring) states to count.

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Just to be 100% crystal clear -- it looks like it's correct but just double checking:

If one of the listed 9 steps away from nuclear capabilities and a new ninth state shows up, this still resolves Yes?

@Eliza correct.

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