New sovereign nuclear state by EOY2027?
9
3kṀ2056
2027
23%
chance
4

As of writing, there are nine sovereign nuclear states: USA, Russia, UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel. Will there be a tenth by 31 Dec 2027, 23:59:59 UTC?

Resolves YES if any sovereign state other than the above nine possess nuclear weapons before the above date. Otherwise, resolves NO.

Nuclear weapons sharing agreements do not count. The state must have credible and independent capacity to launch nuclear strikes on other (e.g. neighboring) states to count.

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