Resolution criteria

To date, there have been no human casualties resulting from conflict in space, nor has any ground target been successfully neutralised from orbit. This market resolves YES if nuclear-armed states engage in direct military conflict in Earth orbit before January 1, 2050. This includes kinetic attacks (satellite destruction), electronic warfare, jamming, or any other hostile action between nuclear powers' space assets. The conflict must involve deliberate hostile action by at least two nuclear-armed states' space systems against each other. Accidental collisions, debris impacts, or unilateral tests do not qualify. Resolution will be determined by credible reporting from major news outlets, government statements, or official military acknowledgments.

Considerations

The 1967 Outer Space Treaty prohibits the deployment of weapons of mass destruction in outer space, but does not prohibit the passage of ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads through Earth's orbit or the deployment of weapons systems that do not contain weapons of mass destruction. The treaty does not prohibit the placement of conventional weapons in orbit, and thus some highly destructive attack tactics, such as kinetic bombardment, are still potentially allowable. This creates ambiguity about what constitutes a treaty violation versus an act of war. Additionally, nuclear powers may react strongly to loss or tampering with their space-enabled communications, which are critical for nuclear command and control.

• Update 2026-01-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will not trade in this market until a war between the nuclear powers has begun.

• Update 2026-01-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Israel is considered a nuclear power for the purposes of this market, despite officially denying possession of nuclear weapons.